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GBPCHF Daily Forex Analysis: Hourly Trend Downward At Snails Pace
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The daily chart is showing that the pair is clearly still consolidating the move lower that happened in the final weeks of February. The Magnet Line was hit on Monday and the hourly chart below is showing that the pair is slowly making its way a bit lower throughout the day. However if you take another look at the daily chart you see something interesting starting to develop as the day goes on. Should price close above the center line of the channel drawn below, Today's daily candle will clearly show a long lower wick with a smaller upper body.

Forget the name of the candle. What does that tell you about today's price action. To me, it says that shorts were initially in the game but gave up after buyers emerged around 1.6100. When seeing this, look at previous days for similar action. We see on 03/01/10 that price plumbed a new yearly low to 1.6000 and bounced hard back above 1.6100; the very next day price closed below 1.6100 but was reversed the next day with a close above 1.6100. Then last Thursday priced bounced off of the 1.6100 level heading to a Daily High of 1.6216 and Friday's high was 1.6288, without coming close to 1.6100. Fast forward to today and it's no surprise that a Bounce happened. The level was clearly exhibiting support in the last week.

It will take a break and close below the 1.6100 level for the down trend to continue. You most likely won't get left out on the break. Many breaks retrace a bit, making support into Resistance, before continuing a run. A late afternoon move below 1.6100 would be damaging to any long positions at this point.

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